The noose tightens for Trump
After early nay-sayers tipping that he would not see out his first term as president, Donald Trump now looks to be entering genuinely dangerous territory following the FBI raid on the office of his personal lawyer, Michael Cohen. Cohen has admitted paying US$130,000 (AUD$168,000) to ‘porn star’ Stormy Daniels following her alleged affair with Trump in 2006.
Cohen has said that he paid Daniels from his own money for unexplained reasons not connected with President Trump. In the raid on Cohen’s office, the FBI seized ‘thousands’ of tax documents and business records including email communications between Cohen and President Trump.
Daniels has claimed she was paid the money just before the 2016 elections to stay quiet about her alleged affair with President Trump. The payment, if proven, amounts to criminal interference in the election campaign. President Trump has denied he was involved in paying Daniels ‘hush money’ and has not been able to explain why Cohen did so.
The raid follows former Trump campaign chairman Paul Manafort being charged with more than 30 counts of bank fraud, making false statements to investigators and other charges in two criminal cases as part of the special investigation into Russian interference in the US 2016 elections. Dutch lawyer Alex van der Zwaan has already been sentenced to 30 days in prison for lying to investigators about contacts with former Trump aide Rick Gates.
Van der Zwaan is the son-in-law of Russian billionaire oligarch and Putin ally German Khan. Gates, Manafort’s long-time close associate, began cooperating with special investigator Robert Mueller’s office in February.
Gates and Van der Zwaan were both in contact with a former officer in Russia’s Military Intelligence Unit (GRU) referred to by the investigation as ‘Person A’. President Vladimir Putin is a former officer with the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB), successor to the KGB. The US Director of National Intelligence found that the GRU and FSB influenced the US 2016 presidential elections. A further, unnamed, Manafort associate has since turned informant and led investigators to a large trove of previously hidden materials about the campaign.
The raid on Cohen’s office is not just the latest event on this on-going battle between the FBI and President Trump, but may directly plunge the US into a constitutional crisis of a type not seen since 1974, when President Richard Nixon resigned to avoid the impeachment over the Watergate affair. The raid on Cohen’s office by FBI, supported by federal prosecutors and judges, shows they now believe there is sufficient evidence to investigate President Trump for a criminal offence.
The raid will, however, be seen, in some quarters, as revenge for President Trump sacking then FBI Director James Comey for his own part in the Russia investigation. President Trump has led that view by claiming that the FBI ‘broke in’ to Cohen’s office, which was part of a ‘total with hunt’ and ‘an attack on America’ by a ‘most biased group of people’.
The raid is now likely to bring to a head another showdown between President Trump and the FBI. President Trump has also indicated he could now fire Mr Mueller, although this will not block judges from giving approval for the investigation to continue.
President Trump’s support base is, however, likely to harden against the investigation, creating a deeper divide in an already polarized US society. President Trump’s support base will be heartened by what appears to be his win in the first round of a potential trade war with China, with President Ji Xinping saying that China will be open to trade. Sending the National Guard to the US-Mexico border in partial fulfillment of a campaign promise will further strengthen the resolve of President Trump’s supporters.
Should evidence surface about President Trump knowing of or directing paying off Stormy Daniels, or there be further damaging revelations about Russian interference in the 2016 presidential campaign, the ‘next steps’ will be fought out in court and in the mainstream ‘fake news’ media. The issue will also contribute to the US Congress mid-term elections in November, in which the Democrats are now expected to win in the House of Representatives and may gain a majority in the Senate.
Should the Democrats win, as polls are showing is likely, the question of President Trump’s impeachment will gain a compelling urgency. Perhaps, as the noose tightens, the nay-sayers were correct.