Timor-Leste consolidates its young democracy
Timor-Leste goes to its fourth parliamentary elections this Saturday, in a process that has so far been colorful and sometimes noisy but unblemished by the violence that marred this country’s first few years of independence. By conventional criteria, Timor-Leste has passed the test of consolidating its young democracy.
The number of parties contesting the elections is at 21, the same as in 2012, which is expected to slow the counting process. However, the main parties – perhaps four or five – are likely to receive the lion’s share of the vote for the 65 parliamentary seats.
Parties that do not receive four per cent of the total vote in the country’s single constituency will have their vote treated, in effect, as not counted. That means the threshold for parties over four per cent to get members in parliament is functionally lowered.
It will be difficult for any single party to achieve an absolute majority of 33 seats in the 65 seat parliament. The next government is, therefore, likely to be a coalition of two or more parties.
Since 2015, Timor-Leste has operated under a ‘government of national unity’, in which the major parties Fretilin and CRT have shared power. This arrangement initially included the smaller Democratic Party (PD), which was later dumped from the governing bloc.
The coalition arrangement has provided Timor-Leste with stability, which has been especially important as the young country continues to heal the wounds of a violent split in 2006-7, which led to foreign intervention. However, with the two largest parties dominating government, the country has had little by way of an Opposition that has been able to hold the government to account, not least for a growth in alleged corruption.
The task of ‘opposition’ effectively fell to the past president, Taur Matan Ruak, who did not re-contest the largely ceremonial presidency in order to contest the parliamentary elections with his new People’s Liberation Party (PLP). In the March presidential elections, PLP and PD joined forces to support a joint presidential candidate, but were soundly beaten in the first round by the CNRT-supported Fretilin candidate Francisco ‘Lu-Olo’ Guterres.
Timor-Leste’s multiplicity of parties reflect less ideological distinctions, particularly since the formation of government of national unity. There is, however, one small avowedly socialist party, whose leader is regularly included in the multi-party cabinet.
Beyond that, however, the real issues revolve around the management of the country’s oil-based sovereign wealth (‘petroleum’) fund. This fund underwrites both the government budget and, by extension, most of the rest of the economy.
However, government spending since 2008 has exceeded interest-only income from the petroleum fund. Income into the petroleum fund has been in decline for several years and the oil fields are beginning to dry up.
At rates of government spending – albeit on much needed infrastructure – based on recent budgets – Timor-Leste will be broke before the end of the 2020s.
There is common agreement across the parties that this issue will be largely redressed by accessing the wealth locked up in the Greater Sunrise liquid natural gas field. Most of this LNG field lies in Australian waters under the terms of the Timor Sea Agreement foisted on a struggling Timor-Leste in 2002.
Timor-Leste has been arguing for a permanent equidistant boundary to be agreed to between Australia and Timor-Leste, rather than the current income-sharing arrangement under a ‘Joint Petroleum Development Area’. The matter is under international arbitration, but is progressing slowly.
Timor-Leste’s medium to longer term issues concern, even if the country was to gain control of the Greater Sunrise field, is that interest in developing it has waned with a drop in the price of LNG. This has been further complicated by the Timor-Leste government’s insistence that the LNG be processed in Timor-Leste.
This means piping the LNG across a deep water trench to a refining facility that does not yet exist. But this goes to longer term economic planning which in turn reflects government and, to a lesser extent, party policy. These are matters for the government that will be formed following these elections.
For the moment, however, the country is in the thrall of the electoral process, with political speeches reflecting sometimes soaring rhetoric if less hard substance. If the future will not quite take of itself, now is a time for celebrating the electoral contest, a social occasion in which people coming together around their local polling station to catch up on local stories, to share food and drinks, and perhaps watch or gamble on a cock fight. Oh, and to vote.
As the tally gets underway, the local vote count is open and public. Voters watch and cheer for each of their candidate’s votes, catcall votes for others and generally treat the event like a sporting contest.
The people of Timor-Leste have embraced their elections, as shown by their relatively high voluntary voter turn-out rate, and the electoral process works well. For now at least, Timor-Leste stands as one of the world’s developing country democratic success stories.